Ovie's amazing goal

Ovie's amazing goal

Monday, August 29, 2011

Neuvy wants to be #1

So Michal Neuvirth want's to be the number one goalie, really no surprise. As many football fans know in the area, Rex Grossman came out and said the Redskins would be 10-6 and win the East. What else would you expect a player to say? I do give him credit. Confidence, as a goalie, is the most important attribute one can have, a prime example is Braden Holtby. No he wont' be mentioned in the article after this, but let's remember his first few games to his last few games. He was unsure of himself early on and as he gained experience his confidence was through the rough and there he was playing hacky sack with the puck. I digress, Neuvy should go in saying he wants to be number one and why not? He was the main man most of last season, advanced us in a playoff series in less than 7 games for the first time in the Ovechkin/Boudreau era and he's only 23 years old. The last time we had this confident a goalie at this young an age was Olie Kolzig and I think we all remember how he turned out. While Tarik El-Bashir wrote a nice article in the Capitals Insider on the Washington Post's website, only one sentence stood out. "But the stern look on his face suggested that it wasn't just lip service," that there shows us that whatever Neuvy may say his demeanor suggests otherwise.

Dare we ask, where is Tomas Vokoun three weeks before training camp? I can tell you exactly where Neuvy is, he is on ice with Carlson, Hendricks and a few Capitals younger players working on their games. No offense to Vokoun but he is not Ovechkin, or a Tim Thomas for a goalie comparison. He is on a new team and has a lot to prove as a goalie. He has to earn the respect of his new teammates. Name the last playoff series that Vokoun won, and I say that without you pulling up the internet to check. I can tell you when the last 9 Playoff series were won by Neuvy. Albeit that 8 were in Hershey but that was all in the last three years with 2 Calder Cups in hand. The only thing that I saw different with Neuvy from Hershey (which I saw him play in the finals in person) to Washington was the direct confidence and ability to take a game over. I saw Neuvy play in the 2010 Calder Cup playoffs in person and he won that series vs Dallas. In the 2009 campaign, the Hershey Bears were the top scoring team in the league by a long shot and Neuvy just had to be average. He had the time to learn and become dominant. So lets take it as a learning curve, the 2011-2012 season should be a "breakout" year for Neuvy. Does he have competition? Yes he does. Is he going to cower in the corner and cry about it? Clearly he's not.

The fact that he is playing with his childhood idol should help him step up his game. If Neuvy is as smart as he seems, he will be a sponge and steal the advantage over Vokoun. There are 82 games in a season, when was the last time we had one goalie play 60-70 games without being injured?  The answer is Olie Kolzig pre lockout. So Neuvy will receive his chance, he just has to put into use the things he learns from Vokoun and Kolzig (asst goalie coach). Let's remember, Vokoun has a one year deal so the Caps know Neuvy is ready. Maybe they are just helping him along a bit and trying to have options come playoff time. If you ask me, Boudreau only named Vokoun the number one to push Neuvy to do better, prepare more and to be ready when his name is called, that atleast is what I hope was done. Neuvy can be the #1 if he strives for it, he's shown he can be before, in Hershey, and he will soon do so in DC.



On another note, thank you for replying to my poll. Tomas Vokoun was the winning vote getter. If you enjoy reading my blog, please subscribe to it, its free to sign up on blogspot, it just shows me that you enjoy the blog and will help me to keep this going. Please tell all your friends, retweet on twitter, post on facebook. I appreciate it all, thank you.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Who really needs to improve this season for the Caps to advance?

First let me say, I was going to write about what Matt Bradley said about Alexander Semin but I don't wanna get into the he said she said stuff. Instead, I found an interesting article (either on ESPN or NHL .com, and of course I can't find it) just last week that stated which player on each team in the league has to improve for his team to have a better season. Of course for the Capitals, Alexander Ovechkin was named. I have a few issues with that. Unless you have closely followed Ovechkin since Boudreau took over, then you wouldn't really have a clue in if Ovechkin had a good or bad season last year.

Let's start with the obvious, first we all know point production was down. Ovechkin scored his lowest goal total ever by 14 goals. His point total the lowest by only 7 points. First thing to argue there is that Ovechkin has begun to set teammates up and pass the puck more rather than force shots. While it wasn't his career high in assists, it was only 6 off the pace. His plus/minus was almost half of what it was the year before, but that has to do with the Caps new defense first system. One positive is that his penalty minutes went down from 89 to 41, which is his lowest as a Cap. Power play goals have decreased since scoring 65 goals (22 on PP) in the 07-08 season, but he is still among the league leaders in game winning goals each year (that has not changed). One stat that should be looked at is Ovechkin's total shots. In 72 games in the 09-10 season he had 368 shots. In 79 games in the 10-11 season he had 367 shots. Less shots will produce less goals and production every year. Let's remember that Boudreau did put him on the ice less for during the PP and with Ovechkin buying into the new defensive system, he would give up opportunities to keep the puck deep in the opponents zone (thus losing goal opportunities) to get the fresh legs on the ice. In the last 25 games of the 10-11 season Ovechkin scored 13 goals and had 19 assists, a total of 32 points. Span that out during 82 games (these numbers are after Ovechkin and the team became comfortable playing in a defensive first scheme) and he would end up with roughly 40 goals and 62 assists for a 102 point season. Granted thats not his 50 goal norm but thats 62 assists (and a career high). Those numbers alone put him 2 points behind Daniel Sedin for the points lead, 6th place in goals and 4th place in assists. Let us not forget he finished 7th in points in the NHL. I personally don't place the need for Ovechkin to have a masterful season as the must have for the Caps to advance in the playoffs. Let's however take a look at a few other players who need to up their production in order for the Caps to improve...

Nicklas Backstrom:
Backstrom had a tough year. He had his lowest point total of his career and dropped 36 points from the 09-10's pace. With Ovechkin's numbers down that did hurt Backie's stats but he also seemed to have lost something. The hand injury towards the end of the season didn't help and once he returned from it he was still not the same player. Could it possibly be that he wasn't 100% but was not going to miss the playoffs? That can be debated. Backstrom is usually a point per game playoff producer and last year only had a bare 2 assists in 9 games. The sudden downfall of the Capitals power play also did not help, as Backstrom had far less points during his special teams shift. Continued improvement on the faceoff will also help the Caps. Backie has gotten better every year and if he can get a few more back to Ovechkin and Semin right off the face off, the Caps can strike quickly on the PP. Backstrom has to regain the form in his 2nd and 3rd season in order for the Caps to remain successful, regain the swagger of the power play and for Ovechkin to get back on track with his type of numbers and play. 

Brooks Laich:
Firstly, Brook's has to make sure that the big money deal stays in the bank account and at his home and not affect his work on the ice. I am not accusing or speculating that Brook's cant or wont do this, but we have seen our fair share of instances in Washington DC with the new bigger contracts. Brook's needs to bounce back from a down season also. He is a top 6 forward, should be on the top line in my personal opinion, and has to take that next step. While he only dropped 11 points from 09-10 to 10-11, his goals dropped by 9 and his power play goals dropped by 8. With all of Boudreau's line shuffling, I sometimes felt as though Brook's was hurt in that manor. There were some games where it seemed he had to be more of a defensive grinder and others where he had to somehow muster a goal or two with very little line support. Brook's plays great on the PP, when given the opportunity to stand in front of the net, and on the penalty kill. Playing on the PK will of course tire him out a bit some games and force his numbers to decline, but with the additions made in the offseason we should see less Laich on the PK and more on the PP and top two lines. Brooks Laich is a prime candidate of a player who must improve in order for the Caps to advance.


Mike Green:
Yes, he was hurt, but when healthy he had by far his worst season since he's matured into a scoring threat. Sure Green was trying, and faired quite well, to become more of a defensive defenseman. The downside is, Mike Green is paid to score goals, create offense and drive the puck from one end to the next and create scoring opportunities. Having him play more defense is great, especially come playoff time, but there were times where I looked at the game and said wow, what happened to Green. Let me say though, Mike Green (statistically) had his best playoff season to date. Until his injury, so mostly just the Rangers series, he was relevant. That is a plus, but during the regular season, though he only played in 49 games, he had just a plus 6 rating. Far off his recent totals of plus 39 (09-10) and plus 24 (08-09). While making the transformation to a more defensive player, we didn't see the coast to coast puck handling that Green brought to the table in recent years. When Green does this, he does end up out of positions, out of breath and sometimes turns the puck over but when the Caps are at their most potent on offense, Green is making plays on offense. He must improve on his 8 goal 16 assist performance. His penalties also need to decline. Just this past season, he averaged just under a 2 min penalty ever two games. His penalties went up but that would most likely have to do with the new defensive scheme. Keeping Green off the ice however hurts the teams potential for quick strikes and scoring opportunities. Look for Mike Green to have a good year both offensively and defensively.

To me these are the three main players that must have an improved season in order for the Capitals to be successful and advance in the playoffs. Of course we have to see steady improvement from Neuvirth, Carlson, Alzner, and Johansson, but that just goes from being rookies to their second year in the league. You can throw Alexander Semin into the mix but we know with Semin he's gonna score goals, get a few assists and make dumb hooking or tripping penalties. I don't know that an improvement from Semin is necessary for the Caps to improve. Maybe Semin staying healthy but you can't keep an injury from happening. As for now, my opinion stands that between Backstrom, Laich, and Green one or all of them must have a more improved season over last in order for the Capitals to advance deep in the playoffs.



Thursday, August 11, 2011

Who is more Popular?

Since this is a topic running around the internet I figured I would hit on it. Who is more popular in DC? Alexander Ovechkin or Stephen Strasburg? Lets start with Strasburg. He signed the biggest contract for a MLB player out of the draft. His first start in the minor leagues drew a huge crowd and ESPN broadcasted his half innings pitched live. Strasburg's first Major League game in front of a sell out crowd at Nationals Park, t.v. crews and reporters galore and to top it all off, got the win in 7 innings pitched with a team record 14 strikeouts. He pitched only 12 games in his rookie year, in games in which he pitched the Nationals attendance was up 15,000 fans per outing. Strasburg only pitched in 12 games in 2010, posted a 2.91 era and averaged 1.35 strikeouts per inning. That is not only two good stats for a pitcher for a season but for a rookie that is a nice stat line. On Sunday, Stephen Strasburg made his first rehab start since his season ending Tommy John Surgery last September and pitched 31 pitches (25 strikes) struck out four and gave up a run. That isn't bad considering how serious the surgery he had is, and it does leave some hope that his career will pick up right where it left off. Strasburg pitched in front of right around 7,000 fans in Hagerstown, MD, well over capacity for the stadium. While his comeback is something to watch, does that really slate him as the more popular of the two?

Alexander Ovechkin was drafted number one overall in the 2004 NHL draft. Like Strasburg, Ovechkin did have to wait a year to play but that was amid the NHL strike/lockout. When Ovechkin's first season started he was on the top line and on the roster from day one. His first game was far from a sellout, the verizon center holds roughly 18,000 fans and all you have to do is go to youtube and see that even the lower level had a spotty amount of fans. Fastfoward to the present time, the 2 MVP awards and 4 consecutive Southeast Division Championships later, Alexander Ovechkin is the face of the franchise. The Capitals have a waiting list for season tickets and Ovechkin is the main jersey you see across everyone's back while walking the concourse of the Verizon Center. He has led his team to the playoffs four years in a row and counting and is always a favorite to win the MVP and the Rocket Richard Trophy. Why wouldn't Ovi be the most popular in DC?

As all Washington Capitals fans would say, Alexander Ovechkin is by far the most popular player. He has already received the key to the city, after winning his first MVP award, and you can see his face on commercials (capital one) and on the jerseys worn by the swarms of people during hockey season. The downside to Ovechkin's sport is that, in this town the Capitals are fighting for the second spot of favored sports team. Football is and always has been the number one sport in DC. With the revival of a baseball team, the sport that is "America's favorite past time," it makes it hard for Ovechkin to get the recognition. Let's face it, in this town we start hearing about Strasburg in February and it doesn't stop until late September. Strasburg has ESPN all over his major games, not to mention the media and press. The only time Ovechkin makes the national stage is with a great goal or if the Capitals fall short in the playoffs. The only regular recognition that Ovechkin receives is when Don Cherry decides to open his mouth and rip Ovechkin for his celebrations and style of play. Strasburg only plays at most two games per week and that all depends on how the rotation lays out in the week. On a national level, Stephen Strasburg is by far the more popular player. It is unfortunate that hockey is a lesser watched sport in this country and Ovechkin only gets noticed on the top ten plays of SportsCenter. If hockey got the same recognition as baseball, Alexander Ovechkin would be the more known and more popular of the two, but for now us Caps fans will hold Ovechkin near and dear to our hearts and know that he truly is the better known athlete in Washington DC.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Is this the year?

Sorry for the delay from first blog to the second, there isn't a whole lot of hockey news right now with the MLB trade deadline having just passed and the NFL finally coming back. I don't want to write what everyone else has but since we are only a few weeks away from the start of training camp I have to ask the ultimate question, is this finally the year? The year that we have been waiting for since the 1998 Stanley Cup Final disaster. I say disaster but I still believe we as fans, players included, were more in a shock and awe of even being there when we clearly weren't expected to be there.

First lets look at what the Caps have to look at. They finished #1 in the Eastern Conference two years running, they have finished #1 in the Southeast division four years running, and they return most of their team from the last two years. Backstrom is most likely 100% healthy, Carlson and Alzner have another year under their belt and the team has seemed to have bought into Coach Boudreau's defense first system.

Now let's look at the overall picture starting with the offense. Alexander Ovechkin had a down year, to his standards, but as the team began to hit their stride in the new defensive system Ovechkin began to get back to his scoring norm. With he, Backstrom and Knuble back on the top line together they should once again be a force. Mike Knuble really began to take to form at the end of last season, by far the best stretch of hockey he has played as a Cap. If Backie can come back to form the top line will score regardless of what type of system they are in. The second line could be the most intriguing line of the team. It seems clear that Brooks Laich and Alexander Semin will be pegged to start there, but the question then lies is Brooks Laich a center or is Marcus Johansson the center. If these three are together you can be guaranteed there's going to be a lot of back checking and a lot of quickness. The other option, in my opinion, is to put a Jason Chimera on this line. He worked really well with the top line in Knuble's absence last year and could put some much needed grit on the same line as Alex Semin. Semin seemed to play with more urgency and alertness when Jason Arnott was put on the second line and the same could work with Chimera. It would add the same type of speed with a Marcus Johansson at center but much less grit which seems to be the goal of this team this year. The third line has several options. Lets stick with a Semin, Laich, Chimera second line, this would put Marcus Johansson at center with the likes of Troy Brouwer and quite possibly a Joel Ward as the wings. I am not familiar with the speed of either Brouwer or Ward but with the style of play that Johansson brings, there will be plenty of chances created for Brouwer and Ward in front of the net. Ward can clearly score in the post season and Brouwer has proven to score when he has the opportunities. If this plays out as a starting third line that would leave four players vying for the 4th line, Jeff Halpern, Jay Beagle, Matt Hendricks and DJ King. King hasn't really worked out in DC so I don't see him getting the nod. This is where I think a Francois Bouchard or a Mathieu Perreault could crack this lineup. It seems as though a wing pairing of Ward and Brouwer on the third line is highly unlikely, that is where you could pair say Brouwer Johansson and Bouchard or Perreault to make things interesting for the opposing team. Let's not forget the long shot of Cody Eakin and  free agent signee Chris Bourque. It sounds like Hershey will be loaded again with the youngsters maturing so there are several possibilities at the third and fourth lines. Lets not forget a Tyler Seguin for the Boston Bruins who had some success late in the year and in the playoffs at a young age. We can't take the younger guys for granted.

Defensively it seems the Caps are pretty set. It would be absurd to think that the Carlson and Alzner pairing would be split up as the top/shut down pairing. The question arises of who pairs with Roman Hamrlik. In my opinion I would put Mike Green with Hamrlik. Green played much more open offensively when paired with Scott Hannan last year and Hamrlik would allow the same type of play from Green. He is quick enough, and much improved defensively, to get back and play smart defensive hockey along with joining in on the rush. When Dennis Wideman was on the ice he paired well with John Erskine and I can't see that being any different. I can only imagine that Jeff Schultz and Erskine will split time and as we all know there will be injuries and having defensive depth is a plus. Sean Collins will most likely be down in Hershey unless they elect to keep two defenseman as healthy scratches, which is a possibility. In all likely hood Tom Poti will be put on long term IR. If he is healthy I would have to believe the Caps will try to move him for virtually nothing to whoever will take him, most likely outside of our division. If he is untradeable I can see them then trying to move an Erskine or Schultz simply because they owe Poti $2.5 million this year if he plays. All in all if the offensive defenseman can perform on the Power Play and they can cut down on mistakes, Mike Green mostly, then the Caps can continue their push towards a New Jersey Devil esq defense first scheme and hopefully push them through to the promise land.

The goaltending is probably the biggest question mark for the team. They brought in Tomas Vokoun, denoted the #1 goalie by Coach Boudreau, and have holdover Michal Neuvirth to challenge. Vokoun has been solid in his career but has never been on a "winning" team. He has two playoff appearances but hasn't gone far. His international stats are amazing but this isn't exactly the international game. Neuvirth played solid last year, clearly earning the job for #1 goalie in the playoffs and didn't play bad. On the other hand he didn't steal any games for us either like Varlamov did vs the New York Rangers now 3 seasons back or the likes of a Tim Thomas this past postseason. Giving Vokoun a chance gives Neuvy the ability to learn from a crafty veteran and time to perfect his skills. Assuming for once there are no injuries, we won't see Braden Holtby which isn't a bad thing. He will be working with Olie Kolzig in Hershey. I for one am glad to have Olie Kolzig back in the organization as he is by far the best goalie in the franchises history. I digress, Vokoun has had the second best GAA since the lockout (which gives it a good timetable for excellence) and has played on teams with very little talent along the way. If he can be as good here as he was in Florida the last few years then the doubts and questions will dissipate as the season prolongs and could solidify what this team has lacked.

Lastly, we have to talk about Coach Boudreau. He has had tons of success in the regular season and nothing but mediocrity in the playoffs. In four trips to the playoffs they have won only two series, both against the New York Rangers. It is highly unlikely that they can play the Rangers in the quarters, semis and conference finals so they will have to figure out how to win against another opponent. There have been times over these four years where Boudreau has been outcoached. I will say he clearly outcoached John Tortorella in both matchups, especially with the starting of Varlamov that first year. However look at the Montreal and Tampa Series'. I will skip the Pittsburgh series because it seems as though Varly just got tired and gave the team zero shot that year. Pittsburgh did however move on to win the Stanley Cup. Back to the Montreal series, Jacques Martin made every move that Boudreau didn't. The Tampa series it seemed Boudreau didn't make any worthwhile adjustments. Tampa's defense was stifling and goaltending was better than average. Roloson did steal a game or two from the Caps, as did the Tampa offense when the Caps did have the lead. One could say Boudreau didn't have Wideman or Green, but you can't blame injuries on losses after four years of playoff failure. I for one think that this is Boudreau's last chance. He has to take the team to atleast game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals or I think George McPhee will be on a coaching search. Boudreau has all the assets needed to win, a veteran goaltender, a better than average defensive group and the tough, gritty offensive additions needed to equal out the finesse, scoring players that the team already has entrenched. With this type of team and the additions made by McPhee the Caps have to be in a win now mode and a take no prisoners attitude, if not this could be the last year we see Boudreau's Hadeed commercial's with the hanging Penguin.